[E-rundbrief] Info 1127 - Uri Avnery: Mad or Crazy? Israel - Iran

Matthias Reichl info at begegnungszentrum.at
Fr Aug 17 22:45:34 CEST 2012


E-Rundbrief - Info 1127 - Uri Avnery:  Mad or Crazy? (Israel's 
war-plans against Iran - US-support?)

Bad Ischl, 17.8.2012

Begegnungszentrum für aktive Gewaltlosigkeit

www.begegnungszentrum.at

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Uri Avnery

August 18, 2012

Mad or Crazy?

BINYAMIN NETANYAHU may be crazy, but he is not mad.

Ehud Barak may be mad, but he is not crazy.

Ergo: Israel will not attack Iran.

I HAVE said so before, and I shall say so again, even after the 
endless talk about it. Indeed no war has been talked about so much 
before it happened. To quote the classic movie line: “If you have to 
shoot, shoot. Don’t talk!”

In all Netanyahu’s bluster about the inevitable war, one sentence 
stands out: “In the Committee of Inquiry after the war, I shall take 
upon myself the sole responsibility, I and I alone!”

A very revealing statement.

First of all, committees of inquiry are appointed only after a 
military failure. There was no such committee after the 1948 War of 
Independence, nor after the 1956 Sinai War or the 1967 Six-day War. 
There were, however, committees of inquiry after the 1974 Yom Kippur 
war and the 1982 and 2006 Lebanon Wars. By conjuring up the specter of 
another such committee, Netanyahu unconsciously treats this war as an 
inevitable failure.

Second, under Israeli law, the entire Government of Israel is the 
Commander in Chief of the armed forces. Under another law, all 
ministers bear “collective responsibility”. TIME magazine, which is 
becoming more ridiculous by the week, may crown “King Bibi”, but we 
still have no monarchy. Netanyahu is no more than primus inter pares.

Third, in his statement Netanyahu expresses boundless contempt for his 
fellow ministers. They don’t count.

Netanyahu considers himself a modern day Winston Churchill. I don’t 
seem to remember Churchill announcing, upon assuming office, “I take 
responsibility for the coming defeat.” Even in the desperate situation 
of that moment, he trusted in victory. And the word “I” did not figure 
large in his speech.


IN THE daily brainwashing, the problem is presented in military terms. 
The debate, such as it is, concerns military capabilities and dangers.

Israelis are especially, and understandably, worried by the rain of 
tens of thousands of missiles expected to fall on all parts of Israel, 
not only from Iran, but also from Lebanon and Gaza. The minister 
responsible for civil defense deserted just this week, and another 
one, a refugee from the hapless Kadima party, has taken his place. 
Everybody knows that a large part of the population (including myself) 
is completely defenseless.

Ehud Barak has announced that no more than a measly 500 Israelis will 
be killed by enemy missiles. I do not aspire to the honor of being one 
of them, though I live quite near the Ministry of Defense..

But the military confrontation between Israel and Iran is only a part 
of the picture, and not the most important one.

As I have pointed out in the past, far more important is the impact on 
the world economy, already steeped in a profound crisis. An Israeli 
attack will be viewed by Iran as American-inspired, and the reaction 
will be accordingly, as explicitly stated by Iran this week.

The Persian Gulf is a bottle, whose neck is the narrow Strait of 
Hormuz, which is totally controlled by Iran. The huge American 
aircraft carriers now stationed in the gulf will be well advised to 
get out before it is too late. They resemble those antique sailing 
ships which enthusiasts assemble in bottles. Even the powerful 
weaponry of the US will not be able to keep the strait open. Simple 
land-to-sea missiles will be quite enough to keep it closed for 
months. To open it, a prolonged land operation by the US and its 
allies will be required. A long and bloody business with unpredictable 
consequences.

A major part of the world’s oil supplies has to pass through this 
unique waterway. Even the mere threat of its closure will cause oil 
prices to shoot sky-high. Actual hostilities will result in a 
worldwide economic collapse, with hundreds of thousands - if not 
millions – of new unemployed.

Each of these victims will curse Israel. Since it will be crystal 
clear that this is an Israeli war, the rage will be turned against us. 
Worse, much worse – since Israel insists that it is “the state of the 
Jewish people”, the rage may take the form of an unprecedented 
outbreak of anti-Semitism. Newfangled Islamophobes will revert to 
old-time Jew-haters. “The Jews are our disaster,” as the Nazis used to 
proclaim.

This may be worst in the US. Until now, Americans have watched with 
admirable tolerance as their Middle East policy is practically 
dictated by Israel. But even the almighty AIPAC and its allies will 
not be able to contain the outburst of public anger. They will give 
way like the levees of New Orleans.


THIS WILL have a direct impact on a central calculation of the warmongers.

In private conversations, but not only there, they assert that America 
will be immobilized on the eve of elections. During the last few weeks 
before November 6, both candidates will be mortally afraid of the 
Jewish lobby.

The calculation goes like this: Netanyahu and Barak will attack 
without giving a damn for American wishes. The Iranian counter-attack 
will be directed against American interests. The US will be dragged 
into the war against its will.

But even in the unlikely event that the Iranians act with supreme 
self-restraint and do not attack US targets, contrary to their 
declarations, President Obama will be compelled to save us, send huge 
quantities of arms and ammunition, bolster our anti-missile defenses, 
fund the war. Otherwise he will be accused of leaving Israel in the 
lurch and Mitt Romney will be elected as the savior of the Jewish State.

This calculation is based on historical experience. All Israeli 
governments in the past have exploited American election years for 
their purposes.

In 1948, when the US was required to recognize the new Israeli state 
against the express advice of both the Secretary of State and the 
Secretary of Defense, President Truman was fighting for his political 
life. His campaign was bankrupt. At the last moment Jewish 
millionaires leaped into the breach, Truman and Israel were saved.

In 1956, President Eisenhower was in the middle of his re-election 
campaign when Israel attacked Egypt in collusion with France and 
Britain. It was a miscalculation – Eisenhower did not need Jewish 
votes and money and put a stop to the adventure. In other election 
years the stakes were lower, but always the occasion was used to gain 
some concessions from the US.

Will it work this time? If Israel unleashes a war on the eve of 
elections, in an obvious effort to blackmail the president, will the 
American public mood support Israel – or could it go the other way? It 
will be a critical gamble of historic proportions. But like Mitt 
Romney, Netanyahu is a protégé of the Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, 
and he may be no more averse to gambles than the poor suckers who 
leave their money in Adelson’s casinos.


WHERE ARE the Israelis in all this?

In spite of the constant brainwashing, polls show that the majority of 
Israelis are dead set against an attack. Netanyahu and Barak are seen 
as two addicts, many say megalomaniacs, who are beyond rational thinking.

One of the most striking aspects of the situation is that our army 
chief and the entire General Staff, as well as the chiefs of the 
Mossad and the Shin Bet, and almost all their predecessors, are 
totally and publicly opposed to the attack.

It is one of the rare occasions when military commanders are more 
moderate than their political chiefs, though it has happened in Israel 
before. One may well ask: how can political leaders start a fateful 
war when practically all their military advisors, who know our 
military capabilities and the chances for success, are against it?

One of the reasons for this opposition is that the army chiefs know 
better than anyone else how totally dependent on the US Israel really 
is. Our relationship with America is the very basis of our national 
security.

Also, it seems doubtful whether Netanyahu and Barak have a majority 
for the attack even in their own government and inner cabinet. The 
ministers know that apart from everything else, the attack would drive 
investors and tourists away, causing huge damage to Israel’s economy.

So why do most Israelis still believe that the attack is imminent?

Israelis, by and large, have been totally convinced by now (a) that 
Iran is governed by a bunch of crazy ayatollahs beyond rationality, 
and (b) that, once in the possession of a nuclear bomb, they will 
certainly drop it on us.

These convictions are based on the utterances of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 
in which he declared that he will wipe Israel off the face of the earth.

But did he really say that? Sure, he has repeatedly expressed his 
conviction that the Zionist Entity will disappear from the face of the 
earth. But it seems that he never actually said that he – or Iran - 
would ensure that result.

That may seem only a small rhetorical difference, but in this context 
it is very important.

Also, Ahmadinejad may have a big mouth, but his actual power in Iran 
was never very great and is shrinking fast. The ayatollahs, the real 
rulers, are far from being irrational. Their whole behavior since the 
revolution shows them to be very cautious people, averse to foreign 
adventures, scarred by the long war with Iraq that they did not start 
and did not want.

A nuclear-armed Iran may be an inconvenient near-neighbor, but the 
threat of a “second holocaust” is a figment of the manipulated 
imagination. No ayatollah will drop a bomb when the certain response 
will be the total annihilation of all Iranian cities and the end of 
the glorious cultural history of Persia. Deterrence was, after all, 
the whole sense of producing an Israel bomb


IF NETANYAHU & Co. were really frightened by the Iranian Bomb, they 
would do one of two things:

Either agree to the de-nuclearization of the region, giving up our own 
nuclear armaments (highly unlikely);

Or make peace with the Palestinians and the entire Arab world, thereby 
disarming the ayatollahs’ hostility to Israel.

But Netanyahu's actions show that, for him, keeping the West Bank is 
vastly more important than the Iranian bomb.

What better proof do we need of the craziness of this whole scare?

http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery

-- 

Matthias Reichl, Pressesprecher/ press speaker,
Begegnungszentrum fuer aktive Gewaltlosigkeit
Center for Encounter and active Non-Violence
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