[E-rundbrief] Info 802 - Nuclear disarmament

[Matthias Reichl]

E-Rundbrief - Info 802 - Haider Rizvi (IPS): POLITICS: Doomsday Clock 
May Finally Stop Ticking. Nuclear disarmament in USA and worldwide?

Bad Ischl, 24.2.2009

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POLITICS: Doomsday Clock May Finally Stop Ticking

Haider Rizvi

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 23  (IPS)  - The Barack Obama administration's
apparent resolve to take U.S. foreign policy in a new direction is
creating ripples of hope for an enhanced U.N. agenda on nuclear
nonproliferation and disarmament.

Observers and diplomats who are due to take part in a major meeting to
discuss progress on the implementation of the 1970 Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) told IPS they had never before so optimistic
about the U.N.-led negotiation process.

”I think he [Obama] is sincere about what he is saying,” said David
Krieger, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, an advocacy
group that works closely with the U.N. ”I think he is willing to stand
up against the vested interests.”

Many peace activists, like Krieger, believe that the threat of a
possible nuclear catastrophe is not going to go away so long as the
major nuclear powers remain reluctant to take drastic steps towards
dismantling their nuclear arsenals.

Countries that rolled back their weapons programmes, as well as those
that never produced such arms, have long been calling for the
elimination of nuclear weapons, but the response they received from the
major nuclear powers has always been disappointing. In addition to
actions against the spread of nuclear weapons, the NPT requires the five
declared nuclear states - the United States, Russia, Britain, France,
and China - to engage in ”good faith” negotiations for disarmament.
Until now that task has remained elusive.

The United States and Russia are the world's largest nuclear weapon
states. They possess no less than 93 percent of the total number of
nuclear weapons in the world, according to Sipri, a Sweden-based think
tank that tracks weapon production and export worldwide.

Among others, China has 400 warheads, France 348, and Israel and Britain
about 200 each. India is believed to have more than 80 and Pakistan
about 40 nuclear weapons.

Critics see the United States as the most irresponsible member of the
nuclear club, for it not only failed to meet the NPT obligations, but
also contributed, at great length, to block, and even derail, the
international discourse on nuclear disarmament.

The Ronald Reagan administration, for example, looked the other way when
Pakistan was developing its illegal nuclear programme in the 1980s.
Similarly, the George W. Bush administration decided to make a nuclear
trade deal with India that remains outside the fold of the NPT.

The Bush administration is held responsible by many for sabotaging the
U.N. agenda on disarmament by its decision to abrogate the 1972 Anti-
Ballistic Missile Treaty and to install controversial missile defences
in countries located next to Russia's borders.

During the past eight years, the former U.S. administration also refused
to endorse the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which is considered
by experts an integral part of the international framework to achieve
the goal of disarmament.

”We have been through the dark ages,” Krieger told IPS. ”It was a
death
plan for humanity.”

During his two terms, Bush never spoke of nuclear disarmament. He rather
fully supported the move to generate new kinds of nuclear weapons. In
March 2007, his administration declared plans to make new kinds of
nukes, a move considered as controversial by many.

Bush argued that the existing warheads had become obsolete, but many
experts saw his line of reasoning as out of step with reality because in
their conclusion, the U.S. stockpile was already 'safe and reliable' for
at least 50 years.

At the time, many independent think tanks in Washington warned that such
a move would prove provocative and counter-productive because countries
like Iran and North Korea would use it as justification to possess
nuclear weapons.

In contrast to the Bush administration, however, the message from the
new administration in Washington appears to be radically different.

”A world without nuclear weapons is profoundly in America's interest
and
the world's interest,” said the new U.S. president in a recent
statement. ”It is our responsibility to make the commitment, and to do
the hard work to make this vision a reality.”

Currently, a coalition of peace advocacy groups is running a nationwide
signature campaign to press Obama to take immediate, effective, and
practical measures for the elimination of nuclear weapons.

”Nuclear weapons could destroy civilization and end intelligent life
on
the planet,” said the campaign in a letter to Obama. ”The only sure
way
to prevent nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism and nuclear war is
to rid the world of nuclear weapons.”

Krieger told IPS that so far over 50,000 people, including some Noble
laureates, have signed the letter. He expects that by next month when
the letter is due to be delivered to the White House, at least one
million people would have endorsed it.

An international group, known as ”Global Zero,” is proposing deep
cuts
in U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, a verification and enforcement
system, and phased reduction leading to the elimination of all
stockpiles.

Supporters of the Global Zero campaign includes many distinguished
international figures and former statesmen, such as former U.S.
President Jimmy Carter; former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger;
former Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci; former Soviet leader Mikhail
Gorbachev; and Shaharyar Khan, a former Pakistani foreign minister.

The launching in Paris follows 18 months of consultations among
diplomats and military leaders and in effect established Global Zero as
a participant in mobilising efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons.

Last July Obama said, ”as long as nuclear weapons exist we will retain
a strong deterrent,” but added in the same breath:” We will make the
goal of eliminating all nuclear weapons a central element in our
nuclear policy.”

According to unconfirmed reports, the Obama administration is already
engaged in negotiations on the proposal to reduce the number of nuclear
weapons to 1,000 in the first phase and that it is possible that the
reaction from Moscow is likely to be positive.

However, in Krieger's view, that would happen only if the Obama
administration takes a different position on the deployment of the U.S.
missile defense systems in Eastern Europe, which Russia perceives to be
a threat to its sovereignty.

Building the missile defence systems has cost U.S. taxpayers hundreds of
thousands of dollars, although it's still not clear that it would be
especially effective.

”The defense contractors in the United States will continue to put
pressure,” he told IPS. ”But he [Obama] has to understand that this
system is not going to work.”

While Krieger and many others seem satisfied with the gradual and phased
reduction of nuclear weapons on both sides, some nuclear abolitionists
remain skeptical about the outcome of such measures and would rather
like to see dramatic results in a short span of time.

”Cutting down to 1,000 nuclear weapons each? 1,000 are too many. It's
the same kind of slow process as it was during the cold war,” said Zia
Mian, a nuclear physicist and peace activist at Princeton University.
”It's about restoring the process, not breaking away from the
process.”

Mian, who plans to attend the upcoming NPT preparatory meeting in May,
added: ”If Obama wants a real change, he must say: We are going to
negotiate a treaty now to eliminate the nuclear weapons.”

+ Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (http://www.wagingpeace.org/)
+ Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
   (http://www.un.org/Depts/dda/WMD/treaty/)
+ Global Zero (http://www.globalzero.org/)

(END/IPS/NA/WD/IP/CO/CS/AC/EL/NU/UN/HR/KS/09)

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Matthias Reichl, Pressesprecher/ press speaker,
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