[E-rundbrief] Info 796 - EU-Banken 18 Bio. faule Werte

[Matthias Reichl]

E-Rundbrief - Info 796 - Die Presse: 18,2 Billionen Euro faule Werte 
vergiften europäische Banken (Auszug); Mike Whitney: Eastern Europe is 
about to Blow.

Bad Ischl, 18.2.2009

Begegnungszentrum für aktive Gewaltlosigkeit

www.begegnungszentrum.at

================================================

18,2 Billionen Euro faule Werte vergiften europäische Banken

17.02.2009 | 16:13 |   (DiePresse.com)

44 Prozent der Vermögens-Werte der europäischen Banken sind "faul" oder
unverkäuflich - in Summe 18,2 Billionen Euro. Dieses systemische Risiko
könnte weitere Banken-Hilfspakete notwendig machen.

Die europäischen Banken sitzen derzeit auf 16,3 Billionen Pfund (18,2
Billionen Euro) giftiger Wertpapiere. Demnach seien derzeit rund 44
Prozent aller Vermögenswerte der europäischen Banken "faul" oder
unverkäuflich und könnten für das EU-weite Bankensystem ein
"systemisches" Risiko bedeuteten. Das geht aus einem Papier der
EU-Kommission hervor, auf das sich die britische Tageszeitung "Daily
Telegraph" beruft - 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/Eur
opean-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html

Der volle Artikel:
http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/boerse/453406/index.do

Dieser Artikel ist die deutsche Zusammenfassung des englischen Originals
im "Daily Telegraph". Siehe auch "Eastern Europe is about to
Blow" von Mike Whitney unten

M.R.

------------------------------------------

Eastern Europe is about to Blow

By Mike Whitney

http://informationclearinghouse.info/article22007.htm

February 17, 2009 "ICH" -- -Eastern Europe is about to blow. If it does,
it could take much of the EU with it. It's an emergency situation but
there are no easy solutions. The IMF doesn't have the resources for a
bailout of this size and the recession is spreading faster than relief
efforts can be organized. Finance ministers and central bankers are
running in circles trying to put out one fire after another. Its only a
matter of time before they are overtaken by events. If one country is
allowed to default, the dominoes could begin to tumble through the whole
region. This could trigger dramatic changes in the political landscape.
The rise of fascism is no longer out of the question.

The UK Telegraph's economics editor Edmund Conway sums it up like this:

"A 'second wave' of countries will fall victim to the economic crisis
and face being bailed out by the International Monetary Fund, its chief
warned at the G7 summit in Rome....But with some countries' economies
effectively dwarfed by the size of their banking sector and its
financial liabilities, there are fears they could fall victim to balance
of payments and currency crises, much as Iceland did before receiving
emergency assistance from the IMF last year." (UK Telegraph)

Foreign capital is fleeing at an alarming rate; nearly two-thirds gone
in matter of months. Deflation is pushing down asset prices, increasing
unemployment, and compounding the debt-burden of financial institutions.
It's the same everywhere. The economies are being hollowed out and
stripped of capital. Ukraine is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary have all slipped into a low-grade
depression. The countries that followed Washington's economic regimen
have suffered the most. They bet that debt-fueled growth and exports
would lead to prosperity. That dream has been shattered. They haven't
developed their consumer markets, so demand is weak. Capital is scarce
and businesses are being forced to deleverage to avoid default. All of
Eastern Europe has gotten a margin call. They need extra funds to cover
the falling value of their equity. They need a lifeline from the IMF or
their economies will continue to crumble.

The UK Telegraph's economics correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has
written a series of articles about Eastern Europe. In "Failure to save
East Europe will lead to Worldwide meltdown" he says:

"Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week
to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might.
His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.

"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian
financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that
is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad
debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc....

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has
borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must
repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the
region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian,
Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account
for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans
to emerging markets. They are five times more exposed to this latest
bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged
(IMF data). (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard UK Telegraph)

An economic crisis is quickly turning into a political crisis. Riots
have broken out in capitals across Eastern Europe. Mr. Geithner had
better be paying attention. The prospects for political upheaval are
growing. Public anxiety can spill out onto the streets at a moments
notice. Governments must act quickly and with resolve. These countries
need hard currency and guarantees of support. If they don't get help,
the simmering public fury will turn into something much more lethal.

UK Telegraph's economics correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

"Global banks have so far written down half the $2,200bn losses
estimated by the IMF. On top of this, EU banks have $1,600bn of exposure
to Eastern Europe -- increasingly viewed as Europe’s subprime debacle,
and EU corporate debts are 95pc of GDP compared to 50pc in the US, a
mounting concern as default rates surge.

“It is essential that government support through asset relief should not
be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing
problems. Such considerations are particularly important in the current
context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and
challenges in sovereign bond issuance." (UK Telegraph)

It's the same wherever banks merged their commercial and investment
branches. Debt has skyrocketed to unsustainable levels destabilizing the
entire economy. The banks have been operating like hedge funds,
concealing their activities on off-balance sheets operations and
maximizing their leverage through opaque debt-instruments. Now the
global economy is caught in the downdraft of a collapsing speculative
bubble. East Europe has been hit hard, but it's just the first of many
bowling pins that will fall. All of Europe has been infected by the same
virus which originated on Wall Street. Monday's New York Times
summarizes developments in the EU:

"Europe sank even deeper into recession than the United States in the
closing months of last year, according to figures published Friday...The
economy of the 16 countries sharing the euro currency declined by 1.5
percent in the fourth quarter, (an annualized drop of roughly 6 percent)
according to the European Union's statistics office. That is even worse
than the 1 percent decline in the United States economy during that
period, compared with the previous quarter.

“Today’s data wipes out any illusion that the euro zone is getting off
lightly in this global downturn,” said Jörg Radeke, an economist at the
Center for Economics and Business Research in London. ("Europe Slump
Deeper than Expected" New york Times)

The "liquidationists" would like to see governments cut off the flow of
funds to ailing financial institutions and let them fail by themselves.
It's Darwinian madness, like waiting out a heart attack on the kitchen
floor instead of rushing to the hospital for emergency care. The global
economy is decelerating at the fastest pace on record. 40 percent of
global wealth has been wiped out. The banking system is insolvent,
unemployment is soaring, tax revenues are falling, the markets are in
shock, housing is crashing, deficits are soaring, and consumer
confidence is at its lowest point in history. This is no time to cling
to half-baked ideology. The global economy is undergoing a massive
system-wide contraction which could spin out of control and plunge us
into another world war. Political leaders need to grasp the urgency of
the moment and keep the vehicle from careening into the ditch.

-- 

Matthias Reichl, Pressesprecher/ press speaker,
Begegnungszentrum fuer aktive Gewaltlosigkeit
Center for Encounter and active Non-Violence
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fon: +43 6132 24590, Informationen/ informations,
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